Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Decline Thirty-Seven Percent Under President Sheinbaum, According to Government Figures

The typical figure of per-day homicides each month in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by recent official statistics. However, public safety specialists have cautioned that murder figures might not signal improved countrywide safety.

Marked Decline in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an average of close to 55 homicides a day in last November as opposed to almost 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidency in September of last year. This announcement was provided by the chief of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that have been recorded over these past months is extremely notable,” Sheinbaum said, noting that last month the lowest amount of homicides were registered for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Intense cartel infighting, alongside the government’s heavily military campaigns to combat the cartels, have made Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent times. The rate hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate over four times greater than the United States. However, killings have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 last year. The President has attributed her national security strategy for an seemingly more pronounced decline in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state said: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The main components of Sheinbaum’s safety strategy include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced collaboration between government authorities.

Expert Caution and Statistical Concerns

But, public safety researchers warned that using homicide numbers to draw a conclusion of pacification was misleading. This is especially true considering the uptick in different criminal activities such as people going missing.

“This would be positive information if this were a drop, but I think we can’t just look at the murder numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

Per the public policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the same period the previous year. However, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some states have risen by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is not reliable for gauging the situation of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the resources or the inclination to accurately identify and classify remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month means of everyday killings was also problematic because it may mask days when there were notably high levels of murders.

“Relying on the daily average makes high peaks of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the administration can highlight the success of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, according to government figures. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely politically advantageous,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

Yet despite these measures, Mexico continues to be plagued by severe violence, with several regions in the throes of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a notable murder of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders murdered in the last 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of youth protested in Mexico City and throughout the nation to voice their outrage at graft and narco-violence.

“The government frames [data] in a way to create a picture of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, socially it’s very debatable,” the analyst remarked.