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Initially, the former US president appeared to adopt a firm approach on the Ukrainian conflict. Following making warnings of "severe consequences" during the summer should Vladimir Putin persisted hindering truce negotiations, he eventually introduced considerable sanctions on the Russian primary petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action seriously affected the Russian leader's capability to fund his aggression in the region.

Yet, through his newly presented comprehensive peace initiative for the conflict, reportedly developed by American and Russian representatives without Ukraine's or European input, he has clearly reverted to his Russia-friendly stance.

Benefiting Invasion

Trump's initiative would essentially benefit the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while putting the country's political freedom in danger. Although ringing proclamations that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed", large portions of the proposal in reality undermine that essential independence. Seen as a Kremlin dream would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his real-estate background, Trump seems to consider the war as a mere territorial dispute, implying giving Russia a section of Ukrainian soil will appease the leader. However, Russia's military campaign is not merely about dominating a damaged area of deindustrialized land in Ukraine's east. Instead, it's about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's obvious goal to weaken it so it no longer serves as an enticing model for the Russian citizens of the responsible governance that his growing dictatorship denies them.

Land Giveaways

While freezing in position the presently divided oblasts of these areas, Trump's plan would compel the nation to abandon all of Donetsk region. In addition to benefiting Russia with territory that its military have been unable to capture in more than a decade of conflict, this surrender would leave Ukrainian military defenses severely undermined.

This region is the location of the nation's highly-touted "stronghold system", the entrenched defensive positions that constitute a critical impediment to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine leave these fortifications, leaving Putin a unobstructed path to Kyiv in case he eventually choose to resume the conflict.

Armed Forces Limitations

Additionally, in a move that would facilitate additional conflict more feasible for Russia, Trump would force the nation to reduce the numbers of its military from their existing large number personnel to a cap of 600,000. Significantly, the initiative imposes no equivalent restrictions on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a gesture to Russia's campaign to characterize Ukraine's legitimate administration as radicals, the proposal states: "All radical ideology and activities must be opposed and forbidden." Apparently to highlight this element, it insists that "The nation will hold democratic votes in three months" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, Trump places no obligation that Putin jeopardize his authoritarian rule by conducting democratic processes in Russia.

Defense Guarantees

Certainly, the plan makes Russia commit not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "establish in law its stance of peaceful relations towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". However considering that Putin has broken equivalent agreements in the history – such as the Budapest accord, in which Russia pledged to respect Ukraine's borders in exchange for relinquishing its Soviet-era atomic arms, and the previous peace deals, in which Russia agreed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of seized land in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – how should anyone have confidence in this commitment this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so adamant on external defense commitments. While the proposal threatens a "strong joint military response" should the Russian Federation resume its invasion, and provides that "Ukraine will receive dependable security guarantees", the details include unclear to alarming. The plan would not only prevent the nation alliance membership but also preclude member states from positioning military personnel on Ukrainian territory, effectively precluding the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to stop Russia from replenishing his weakened military, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

International Reaction

An additional side agreement apparently would grant Ukraine with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any future "significant, planned, and ongoing military assault" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an assault threatening the peace and security of the Western nations." This indicates a military response. But different from a strong Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable protection against renewed invasion – the credibility of the supplementary deal would rely on the dedication of Nato leaders, such as the US administration, to respond through arms to Russia's hostilities, something they have {not